Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 13.865225 16.153219 18.642960 21.545985 24.830094 28.422103 32.639962
2024-12-22 9.738683 12.722468 16.288091 20.828792 26.419701 33.038642 41.423625
2024-12-29 7.786280 11.209940 15.633976 21.686897 29.657884 39.691432 53.154968
2025-01-05 6.272596 9.849895 14.802138 22.010017 32.055993 45.360276 64.069007
2025-01-12 5.096900 8.669544 13.934727 22.032242 33.892516 50.301538 74.312423
2025-01-19 4.220930 7.733095 13.215202 22.076131 35.639334 55.136480 84.664425
2025-01-26 3.867265 7.541026 13.555545 23.680561 39.739662 63.539850 100.576409
2025-02-02 3.462316 7.176835 13.546141 24.694133 42.980582 70.867051 115.369619
2025-02-09 3.110034 6.834667 13.507490 25.619850 46.115858 78.200354 130.587974
2025-02-16 2.674694 6.250692 12.956444 25.593092 47.663656 83.136094 142.397142
2025-02-23 2.229472 5.557023 12.099366 24.910016 48.012842 86.139578 151.303625
2025-03-02 1.830502 4.875642 11.158452 23.944412 47.748777 88.070025 158.537643
2025-03-09 1.590082 4.505691 10.794816 24.051072 49.449579 93.484049 171.977581
2025-03-16 1.341862 4.064000 10.220159 23.683751 50.260735 97.457225 183.307652
2025-03-23 1.244669 3.974277 10.381127 24.800585 53.925970 106.605144 203.913694
2025-03-30 1.109633 3.754547 10.218338 25.221320 56.276584 113.547357 221.064814
2025-04-06 0.969185 3.485639 9.899579 25.267281 57.883150 119.227940 236.290771
2025-04-13 0.848801 3.243510 9.604717 25.324235 59.501020 125.004866 251.964349
2025-04-20 0.830140 3.306091 10.069367 27.131798 64.827803 137.982732 281.231171
2025-04-27 0.779412 3.255415 10.238081 28.272026 68.840677 148.678568 306.812647
2025-05-04 0.728158 3.190729 10.360309 29.312214 72.710658 159.294589 332.715910
2025-05-11 0.640617 2.977758 10.051516 29.282311 74.268606 165.498128 350.664199
2025-05-18 0.539679 2.685025 9.471758 28.515150 74.137832 168.351736 362.400522